经验与数据双驱动的深层地热资源潜力评价方法及应用

Data-expert dual-driven deep geothermal resource potential assessment: methods and applications

  • 摘要: 为克服传统资源评价方法中单一依赖专家经验驱动或数据驱动模型的局限性,提升评价的客观性与结果可靠性,以江苏南部地区深层地热资源潜力为例开展研究。在系统分析研究区深层地热资源地质背景与分布特征的基础上,选取地壳厚度、居里面埋深、距深大断裂距离、中酸性岩浆岩分布、大地热流、地温梯度及盖层厚度等7项反映深层地热资源形成机制和特征标志的关键指标,构建涵盖地热资源形成“源–通–储–盖”核心要素的评价指标体系。通过G1法和熵权法分别计算经验驱动和数据驱动的指标权重,再利用博弈论确定指标的组合权重,建立经验与数据驱动相融合的综合评价模型,实现苏南地区深层地热资源分布潜力定量评价。结果显示,苏南地区深层地热资源高潜力区分布受区域深大断裂构造及交汇的控制作用明显,主要集中于南京南部及苏州东北部,分别呈NE向、NW向条带状展布。这一结果与区域内已有的深部地温场研究结果相吻合,从定量角度对苏南地区深层地热资源以构造裂隙型为主这一传统地热地质认识给出了解释,同时也表明提出的双驱动融合模型,能够兼顾地热地质专家经验与评价指标的区域性差异,为深层地热资源潜力评价提供了一种有效方法。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the limitations of traditional resource evaluation methods that solely rely on either expert-driven or data-driven models, and to improve the objectivity and result reliability of the evaluation, this paper conducts a study taking the potential of deep geothermal resource in southern Jiangsu Province as an example. Following a systematic analysis of geological settings and distribution characteristics, seven key factors reflecting the formation mechanism and characteristic markers, which covering the core elements of “source-connectivity-reservoir-cap” of deep geothermal resources, were selected to establish an evaluation index system, including crustal thickness, Curie depth, distance from deep large faults, distribution of medium-acidic magmatic rocks, terrestrial heat flow, geothermal gradient, and caprock thickness. Specifically, the weights of expert-driven and data-driven indicators were calculated using the G1 method and entropy weight method, respectively; subsequently, game theory was employed to determine the combined weights of the indicators, and a data-expert dual-driven model was established to quantitatively evaluate the distribution potential of deep geothermal resources in southern Jiangsu Province. The results indicate that the high-potential areas of deep geothermal resources in the study area are concentrated in the southern part of Nanjing and the northeastern part of Suzhou, distributed in the NE and NW directions, which are controlled by regional fault structures and their intersection zones. From the perspective of quantitative evaluation and calculation, these results are consistent with the existing research conclusions of deep geothermal fields, and give an explanation for the traditional geological understanding that deep geothermal resources in southern Jiangsu are mainly structural fracture type. At same time, it also indicates that the dual-driven model effectively integrates expert experience and the objective characteristics of data, providing an effective method for the potential evaluation of deep geothermal resources.

     

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