基于多源信息融合与深度学习的煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害风险等级预警方法

Risk level early warning for coal gas compound dynamic disasters via multi-source information fusion and deep learning

  • 摘要: 深部开采条件下,煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害致灾机理复杂且因素多重耦合,精准预警对保障矿井安全生产具有重要意义。提出了一种多源信息融合的深度学习预警方法,构建了SCSSA−MSDA−TFT时序智能预警模型,其中,采用改进麻雀搜索算法(Sine-Cosine and Cauchy-enhanced Sparrow Search Algorithm,SCSSA)自适应优化模型超参数,引入多源域自适应(Multi-Source Domain Adaptation,MSDA)实现异构监测数据的分布对齐与特征统一表征,并以时间融合Transformer(Temporal Fusion Transformer ,TFT)高效提取多源时序指标的动态演化特征,完成风险等级预警。针对微震监测、瓦斯参数等多源信息,构建数据驱动的复合动力灾害风险等级标定流程:以复合风险指数(Composite Risk Index,CRI)为核心,对其实施时序平滑,并基于受试者工作特征(Receiver Operating Characteristic,ROC)曲线分析确定高风险等级阈值;随后通过聚类有效性检验评估划分等级与数据内在结构的一致性。构建复合动力灾害预警指标体系,以XGBoost训练多分类基线并计算全局SHAP重要性,结合滑动时窗稳健性检验与子集筛选准则,形成兼具物理指向性与判别效率的紧凑指标子集。结果表明:模型在测试集的宏平均F1达到0.965、准确率为0.961,较对比模型与消融模型均有显著提升,能够准确捕捉复合动力灾害的多尺度前兆并实现对风险等级的精准预测与预警。所提出的深度学习融合预警方法能够有效整合多源信息并建立等级标定与指标体系,对提升复合动力灾害风险等级预警的准确性与可靠性具有重要工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Under deep mining conditions, the failure mechanisms of coal gas compound dynamic disasters are highly complex and involve strong multi-factor coupling, so accurate early warning is critical for ensuring safe mine production. This study proposes a deep learning-based early-warning approach driven by multi-source information fusion and develops an SCSSA-MSDA-TFT time-series intelligent early-warning model. In this framework, an Sine-Cosine and Cauchy-enhanced Sparrow Search Algorithm (SCSSA) is employed to adaptively optimize the model hyperparameters, Multi-Source Domain Adaptation (MSDA) is introduced to align the distributions of heterogeneous monitoring data and achieve unified feature representation, and a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) is used to efficiently extract the dynamic evolutionary characteristics of multi-source time-series indicators, thereby enabling risk-level early warning. For multi-source information such as microseismic monitoring and gas-related parameters, a data-driven risk-level calibration procedure for coal gas compound dynamic disasters is constructed. Taking a Composite Risk Index (CRI) as the core, the CRI series is temporally smoothed, and the high-risk threshold is determined based on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Cluster validity evaluation is then used to assess the consistency between the calibrated risk levels and the intrinsic data structure. Furthermore, a compound dynamic disaster early-warning indicator system is established: an XGBoost multi-class baseline model is trained and global Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) importance is computed, which, combined with sliding-window robustness checks and subset selection criteria, yields a compact indicator subset that balances physical interpretability and discriminative efficiency. The results show that the proposed model achieves a macro-averaged F1-score of 0.965 and an accuracy of 0.961 on the test set, significantly outperforming the comparison and ablation models. The model can accurately capture multi-scale precursory signals of coal gas compound dynamic disasters and realize precise prediction and early warning of risk levels. The proposed deep learning fusion early-warning approach effectively integrates multi-source information and establishes a coherent risk-level calibration and indicator system, offering substantial engineering application value for improving the accuracy and reliability of risk-level early warning for coal gas compound dynamic disasters.

     

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