基于随机规划与IGDT鲁棒优化的煤矿综采工作面关键设备日前运行调度

Day-ahead operation scheduling of critical equipment in fully-mechanized coal mining based on stochastic programming and IGDT robust optimization

  • 摘要: 在当前我国电力市场化改革和能源消费侧低碳转型背景下,高耗能工业用户如煤矿企业迫切需要优化电力消费策略以降低生产成本。传统煤矿用电优化方法通常忽视大型设备的具体运行调度,导致用电成本高且能效低。此外,现有方法未充分考虑电价的不确定性,使得企业制定的优化策略缺乏灵活性,难以有效应对电价变化。为此,提出了基于电价不确定性分析的综采工作面关键设备运行优化方法,旨在动态优化设备用电策略,从而控制煤炭生产中的能耗和成本。首先,基于贝叶斯优化理论和ARIMA时间序列模型进行电价预测,获取日前预测电价,并采用拉丁超立方抽样法和K-medoids聚类获取关键电价场景模拟电价波动。其次,构建了基于随机规划与信息间隙决策理论(Information Gap Decision Theory,IGDT)的双层优化模型,其中上层模型基于随机规划在关键电价场景下进行成本优化,确定最优生产策略,并关联电价、设备速度与采煤量,将各工艺阶段的采煤量约束重构为采煤机运行距离约束,提出了采煤机速度−时间非线性函数模型。下层模型则通过设定电价不确定参数波动范围,获取鲁棒电价场景,并引入成本偏差系数调节预期成本,基于IGDT进行鲁棒优化。通过上下层迭代求解,逐步优化调整各时段速度策略和各工艺阶段时间策略,确保在不同电价不确定参数下的经济性和鲁棒性。以我国山西长治某煤矿为例,基于实际综采工艺和电价数据对采煤机用电成本进行仿真。结果表明:在现行“三八”模式和改进“三N”模式下,基于双层优化模型的调整生产策略均能显著降低电费成本。此外,当电价不确定性参数从0.1增加到0.3,再从0.3增加至0.5时,“三八”模式下的电费成本波动幅度均仅为6×10−6,而“三N”模式下分别为1.30%和1.88%,在电价不确定性参数增加时,2种模式均表现出良好的鲁棒性和稳定性。

     

    Abstract: In the context of electricity market liberalization and the low-carbon transition in energy consumption, high-energy-consuming industrial sectors, such as coal mining enterprises, urgently need to optimize their electricity consumption strategies to reduce production costs. Traditional optimization methods often neglect the scheduling of specific large equipment and the uncertainty in electricity prices, resulting in high production costs, low energy efficiency, and inflexible strategies that difficult to effectively respond to price fluctuations. An optimization method for the operational scheduling of critical equipment in fully-mechanized coal mining is proposed, which accounts for the uncertainty of electricity prices. The method employs electricity market pricing-based mechanisms to dynamically adjust power consumption strategies, thereby effectively controlling the energy use and costs. Firstly, Bayesian optimization theory and an ARIMA time-series model are employed to forecast day-ahead electricity prices. Based on Bayesian predicted prices, key price scenarios simulating price fluctuations, are obtained through Latin Hypercube Sampling and K-medoids clustering. Subsequently, a bi-level optimization model is developed, integrating stochastic programming with Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). The upper level focuses on cost optimization through stochastic programming to determine the optimal production strategy under the key price scenarios. The coal output constraints for each mining process are reformulated as constraints of shearer operating distance, linking electricity prices, traction speeds, and coal output. A nonlinear speed-time function model for the shearer is then proposed. The lower level defines the fluctuation range of uncertain electricity price parameters, derives robust electricity price scenarios, and introduces a cost deviation coefficient to adjust the expected cost, performing robust optimization based on IGDT for each scenario. Through iterative solving of the two levels, the speed strategies for each period and the time strategies for various processes are gradually optimized and fine-tuned, ensuring both economic efficiency and robustness under varying price uncertainties. A model was developed based on a real coal mine in Changzhi, Shanxi Province, China, incorporating actual comprehensive mining processes and pricing data. The case simulation results indicate that the optimizing strategies through this model significantly reduce electricity costs. Furthermore, as the uncertain electricity price parameters increase from 0.1 to 0.3 and then from 0.3 to 0.5, the fluctuation in electricity costs under the traditional “three-eight” model remains minimal at 6×10−6, while the fluctuations under the enhanced “three-N” model are 1.30% and 1.88%, respectively. The two models exhibit strong robustness and stability, even as price uncertainty increases.

     

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